BMW (BMWG.DE)

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BMW (BMWG.DE)

Equity Research

2 July 2026 | 5:05AM BST

BMW (BMWG.DE): Takeaways from US Capital Market Event:

Constructive US outlook, all-new X5 and Spartanburg localisation

Coming just two weeks after BMW’s 16 June profit warning (FY26 Auto EBIT margin Christian Frenes

+44(20)7051-8641 |

cut to 1-3%, FCF to >€2.5bn, link; GSe revision link) and ahead of the 2Q report on christian.frenes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

30 July and the September Capital Market Day, this Spartanburg event is well-timed

Monika Mengting Liu, CFA

to reinforce the part of the equity story that remains intact: BMW’s US growth as an +44(20)7051-7601 | monika.liu@gs.com

offset to China weakness, and its industrial and battery localisation strategy. Our Goldman Sachs International

Shivam Kotechatakeaways: +1(332)245-7822 |

shivam.kotecha@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

n Stable-to-positive US outlook. Management struck a constructive tone, guiding

Robert Triulzi

to another potential record US sales year in 2026 on the back of a resilient +44(20)7552-2281 |

robert.triulzi@gs.com

premium segment and strong brand strength (US retail sales +11.2%/+2.2% Goldman Sachs International

R1M/R3M yoy as of May, Exhibit 6) (Consumer Reports’ best luxury brand for the

fourth consecutive year, and a dealer-survey ranking that has climbed from #17

in 2017 to #3 in 2026). Tariff headwinds were manageable according to the

management, and the company remains hopeful about potential tariff tailwinds

from a US Mexico trade deal or a US export credit deal going forward although

details remain vague.

n X5 and core models anchor the high-margin US market. The X5 alone

represents c.20% of US volume mix (and 10% globally Exhibit 3) in 2025, with the