ASML Holding (ASML.AS)

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ASML Holding (ASML.AS)

Equity Research

1 July 2026 | 7:09PM BST

ASML Holding (ASML.AS): Updating estimates and 12M PT to factor in

Memory datapoints and capex investments, reiterate Buy

Alexander Duval

+44(20)7552-2995 |

alexander.duval@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Anant Jakhar

+1(332)245-7829 |

anant.x.jakhar@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

ASML will report its 2Q26 earnings on July 15, and we update our estimates to

Ayo Odunaiyareflect the recent memory datapoints and our latest view on China, among other +44(20)7051-5995 |

factors. We reiterate our Buy rating. Please see more details below. ayo.x.odunaiya@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

Key themes and datapoints:

n Increased Memory capex outlook: Demand for Memory continues to outstrip

supply, and recent datapoints suggest increased capex investments in the space.

For example, Micron at its recent 3QFY26 results stated that it expects capex

investment of c.$10bn in 4QFY26 (implying FY26 capex of around $27bn), with

FY27 capex set to increase significantly yoy (GS currently models FY27 capex of

$50bn), of which around 50% of the increase is attributable to construction

capex (see more details in our readacross note here).

o Additionally, we believe that Memory demand could drive a multi-year

capacity build-out, which is a positive for semicap players and especially

ASML given its relatively higher Memory exposure and longer lead times

(>12M for EUV tools).

o For example, Samsung recently announced that it aims to spend around

W2,450tn over the next 15 years (2026-2040), with around 76% of the

total investment allocated to semiconductors (see more details in our Asia

team’s note here). While Samsung did not disclose details around the split

of the spending between capex and R&D (per our colleagues covering