US Power Pipeline May capacity shows strong increase, driven by solar and wind

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US Power Pipeline May capacity shows strong increase, driven by solar and wind

Goldman Sachs

The pace and sourcing of US power infrastructure is a front and center area of focus

for investors given implications for the pace of AI deployment and a driver of our

3.2% CAGR in US power demand through 2030. In this note, we analyze the generation

capacity data from the EIA to keep track of currently planned and added capacity. We

believe Parts/People availability are among the key drivers/constraints to AI/data center

(and broader) power demand growth, and the latest EIA data is supportive for

renewables development through 2030 amid policy incentives sunsetting.

We provide further detail regarding net generation capacity additions by technology,

planned capacity projects development stages, cumulative delays,

cancellations/postponement and expected capacity additions in 2026-2030. Our main

takeaways are:

n Significant increase in May’s capacity, compared to previous years. Total system

generating capacity rose by 6.0 GW compared to last year’s 4.9 GW, largely driven by

significant increases in wind (+3.8 GW), and solar (+1.9 GW) capacity. The increase in

capacity through May represents 33% of our total net capacity addition estimates

for 2026, which is slightly below the average of capacity added through May since

2020 of 36%. By technology, wind, storage and solar additions YTD are now tracking

at 70%, 44% and 28% of our full-year capacity addition estimates, respectively.

Meanwhile, coal retirements remain at 46% of our total expected coal capacity

decrease for the year. CCGT is at 63% while simple cycle natural gas additions have

fallen to 3% of our yearly estimates.

n Renewables pipeline remain robust. The project pipeline for solar showed little