Into moderating near-term gold margins, stock specific catalysts to drive relative outperformance; Preview Jun-Q/FY27 guidance

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Into moderating near-term gold margins, stock specific catalysts to drive relative outperformance; Preview Jun-Q/FY27 guidance

Equity Research

1 July 2026 | 4:14PM AEST

AUSTRALIA METALS & MINING

Into moderating near-term gold margins, stock specific catalysts to

drive relative outperformance; Preview Jun-Q/FY27 guidance

While we continue to see strong medium to longer-term cash generation and Hugo Nicolaci

+61(2)9321-8323 |

valuation support for the gold equities (now pricing <US$3,200/oz on average hugo.nicolaci@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

long-term), we reiterate that with A$ gold prices moderating and re-emerging

Paul Youngcost pressures beginning to come through this quarter, we see a risk to +61(2)9321-8302 |

near-term margins for the Australian gold sector in the coming quarters, with paul.young1@gs.comGoldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

margins moderating back to 2H CY25 levels before rebounding in CY27 (see our Marcus Dosanjh

gold price scenario analysis). We note the lower interim gold prices reduce the +61(2)9321-8780marcus.dosanjh@gs.com|

headwind of legacy hedges for NST, and BGL (which we see continuing to prepay Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

hedges and potentially be unhedged in 2H FY27).

In this context, we see potential outperformance within the sector driven by

stock-specific catalysts (i.e. revised guidance/multi-year outlooks/resource

updates), and we outline our expectations into the June Q/FY26 results and FY27

guidance (including expected timelines for guidance to be given) within. Across

our gold coverage, we remain ~5-15% above Visible Alpha consensus on unit costs

into FY27, driven in part by labor cost inflation and productivity impacts (particularly

at underground mines; see our Gold Book for more detail), while the lagged impacts