ASEAN Viewpoint: Mid-Year Review: Easing energy headwinds, growing AI tailwinds

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ASEAN Viewpoint: Mid-Year Review: Easing energy headwinds, growing AI tailwinds

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ASEAN Viewpoint

Mid-Year Review: Easing energy

headwinds, growing AI tailwinds

ASEAN enters H2 2026 on easing headwinds 01 July 2026

The West Asia conflict weighed heavily on ASEAN given its high imported energy GEM Economics

dependence, but easing tensions and lower energy prices have reduced concerns of a ASEAN

major slowdown in H2 2026. ASEAN enters H2 with an improved growth outlook, Rahul Bajoria

supported by resilient electronics exports and the AI-driven investment cycle. However, India & ASEAN Economist

inflation risks remain elevated as the pass-through of the energy shock materializes with BofAS+91 22India6632 3095

a lag coupled with the prospect of strong El Niño weather conditions later in the year. rahul.bajoria@bofa.com

Kai Wei Ang

Exports on AI-related demand to drive regional growth ASEANMerrill LynchEconomist(Singapore)

Resilient electronics exports continue to underpin ASEAN’s external sector despite +65 6678 5518

kaiwei.ang@bofa.com

persistent global uncertainty. Meanwhile, consumption, investment and tourism recovery

show mixed outlook in the region. Malaysia and Singapore remain the key beneficiaries PipatEmergingLuengnaruemitchaiAsia Economist

of the global AI-upcycle, while Thailand and Vietnam are also seeing spillovers through Kiatnakin Phatra Securities

+66 2 305 9221

broader supply-chain linkages. Meanwhile, more domestically oriented economies such pipat.luen@kkpfg.com

as Indonesia and the Philippines continue to lag. Higher fuel imports have weighed on Jojo Gonzales ^^

trade balances in Q2 2026, but strong electronics exports have helped cushion the Research Analyst

Philippine Equity Partners

impact.