FX Technical Advantage: Greenback heatwave

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FX Technical Advantage: Greenback heatwave

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FX Technical Advantage

Greenback heatwave

Market Analysis

View: Long USD bias remains 01 July 2026

Since June 2025 and initially against consensus, we argued the DXY decline in 1H25 was Technical Strategy

near completion, that it would find support in the 97s and a bottom could form. The Global

downtrend turned sideways and, after a year-long trading range, the DXY has formed a FICC and Equity

head and shoulders bottom, is repeating 2018 and has just broken out to new 52-wk Paul Ciana, CMT

highs. Our upside targets are 102.86 and 104.60. We note a downtrend line in the low Technical Strategist

106s at YE26. Oscillators are supportive with RSI breaking higher and MACD crossing up. BofAS+1 646 743 7014

paul.ciana@bofa.com

Notable risks to our view: It is now more consensus (Fed priced?), Q3 seasonality is Jonathan Hartley, CMT

mixed (however UPSC Y2 and 3Q18 are bullish USD), markets are looking past US-Iran Technical Strategist

BofAS

risk-premium, and sometimes the head and right shoulder of a head and shoulders jonathan.a.hartley@bofa.com

bottom evolves into a bearish continuation pattern (such as a flag or wedge).

BBDXY on watch for upside break to propel USD higher Recent Technical Strategy reports

We seek a breakout in the BBDXY above 1230 to signal broader USD strength. Given Seasonality Advantage: It’s not that

euro's 58% weight in DXY and 32% weight in BBDXY, this outlook remains consistent easy in Q3 29 June 2026

with further EUR downside. Additional USD strength vs BBDXY’s larger weights (JPY,

Technical Advantage: Macro roundupCAD, GBP, and MXN) would help drive it higher.

heading into Q3 25 June 2026

Ten technically talking USD points…

Equity Technical Advantage: FANGs

1.