Real curve symphony in B flat major

研报英文原文证据摘录

Real curve symphony in B flat major

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Inflation Strategist

US TIPS: Expect hikes to trigger RY curve inversion 01 July 2026

Hawkish Fed to fight inflation should drive flatter nominal curve & deeper RY inversion; Fixed Income Research

we recommend a forward RY curve flattener. CPI is not the problem, PCE is: Fed focused Global

on restoring 2% PCE means forward inflation swaps may fall further. – M. Swiber Table of Contents

Euro IL: The €100bn question US TIPS 2

The end-July exit from indices of OATei 2027 will extend their duration by 0.34. This Euro IL 3

should help deliver the kind of real rate rally that is often seen in the summer. But it’s UK IL 3

only the start. A further three exits will see a total of €100bn by value leaving indices by EM IL: LatAm 3

next May. This should strongly support our bullish real rate bias. – M. Capleton US Economics 3

UK IL: Long-end UKTi to enjoy the sunshine Euro Area Economics 3

UK Economics 3

As in the Eurozone, summer has typically favoured linkers on a real yield basis and

Research Analysts 3

August index extensions should help this year. We would receive longer-dated forward

real yields. Many would regard RPI reform pricing as much too tight. Perhaps, but it’s not

as obvious as it might appear. – M. Capleton Mark Capleton

Rates Strategist

EM IL: LatAm: Sell inflation in Brazil, buy in Mexico MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 6118

We maintain our short 5y inflation breakeven position in Brazil, and our long 3y inflation mark.capleton@bofa.com

breakeven position in Mexico. Brazil’s tight monetary policy should lead to growth Meghan Swiber, CFA Rates Strategist

deceleration and disinflation in 2027. Mexico’s breakevens are below realized core BofAS

inflation and in our view under-pricing inflation risks. – E.