Refining estimates for scanner and incremental logistics costs

研报英文原文证据摘录

Refining estimates for scanner and incremental logistics costs

Accessible version

Freshpet, Inc.

Refining estimates for scanner and

incremental logistics costs

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 70.00 USD | Price: 59.12 USD

Maintaining 2Q adj. EBITDAe but shifting around the build 01 July 2026

Although we maintain our 2Q26 adj. EBITDA estimate of $47mm (vs. VA consensus of Equity

$46mm), we make some adjustments to our P&L build for the quarter, adjusting net

sales higher to mark to scanner, offset by incremental logistics-related inflation costs

Key Changes(see inside for regressions/correlations on both analyses). Maintain 2Q adj. EPS of $0.24.

Beyond 2Q, we look for potential quantitative commentary in the event of accelerated (US$) Previous Current

technological investments, given the potential margin impact (+) particularly in FY27. Price Obj. 75.00 70.00

Raising net sales on better scanner QTD Yasmine Deswandhy

Research Analyst

We raise our 2Q net sales estimate to $296mm from $291mm, now up +12% YoY, vs BofAS

our prior +10% estimate. Regressing historical FRPT NielsenIQ $ sales and reported net +1 646 855 3745 yasmine.deswandhy@bofa.com

sales (R^2=~0.99), implies potential 2Q net sales of ~$300m. We model a slight discount

Peter T. Galbo, CFA

to account for the typical gap between reported and scanner and some conservatism as Research Analyst

we monitor scanner data for the last two weeks of the quarter. Recall that FRPT saw BofAS +1 646 743 0175

easier compares in April/May but will see difficult compares in 3Q from 3Q25’s peter.galbo@bofa.com

significant expansion in a large club customer, including a pipeline fill. We expect 3Q to

be the trough in sales growth for the year.

Logistics could be a 120-140bps YoY GM headwind to 2Q Stock Data

We lower 2Q adj.