Colombia: MPC Surprises Again with a Hawkish 75bp Hike to 12.0%; Tightening Bias Likely Maintained but Hiking Cycle Is Advanced

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Colombia: MPC Surprises Again with a Hawkish 75bp Hike to 12.0%; Tightening Bias Likely Maintained but Hiking Cycle Is Advanced

Economics Research

30 June 2026 | 5:07PM EDT

Colombia: MPC Surprises Again with a Hawkish 75bp Hike to 12.0%;

Tightening Bias Likely Maintained but Hiking Cycle Is Advanced

Bottom Line: The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiked the policy Santiago Tellez

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rate by 75bp to 12.0% in a 4-1-2 vote split (one vote for a hold; two for a 50bp cut). santiago.tellez@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

The move was against the Bloomberg consensus and our expectation of a 50bp

move, though we note a wide range of survey forecasts between 0 and +100bp.

In our view, the policy signals were hawkish on net, consistent with a tightening bias

that we expect to persist into at least the next meeting. The statement reiterated

that domestic demand has outpaced production and underscored a dynamic labor

market alongside rising wages—an innovation. During the press conference,

Governor Villar hinted that the Board’s goal is to minimize the distance between the

upper end of the 3±1% target band and projected inflation for end-2027, which the

staff now sees at 4.0% (vs. 3.7% in the last Inflation Report). The characterization of

the external backdrop remained cautious, discounting lower global energy prices,

and flagging the risk of a tightening of external financial conditions. While he

welcomed the recent compression in risk premia, Governor Villar cautioned that this

trend must consolidate before it can permanently lower the neutral rate, and noted

that the MPC awaits greater clarity on the incoming administration’s fiscal

consolidation plans.

Nonetheless, Governor Villar characterized the next decision as firmly