InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (INGL.BO): Industry-wide profit focus and reduced cost headwinds sets-up mkt leader for strong gains; reiterate Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (INGL.BO): Industry-wide profit focus and reduced cost headwinds sets-up mkt leader for strong gains; reiterate Buy

Goldman Sachs InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (INGL.BO)

Crude headwinds abating now although refining spreads will keep FY27E costs elevated

Our oil and gas commodities team reduced their oil price forecast (link) following

announcement of an interim deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally,

the APAC Energy team raised their Singapore GRM forecasts for CY26E as a whole and

thereby moderating it in 2027/28 (Exhibit 2).

While Brent has corrected, the refining spreads have not materially come down and it

will take longer for them to reach pre-conflict levels (16.9$/bbl in CY25).

Exhibit 1: Brent which is currently around ~73$/bbl is Exhibit 2: Jet fuel cracks which were at an average of

expected to reach 80/75$/bbl by 4QCY26/CY27 per our 36$/bbl in 1QCY26 are currently at an average of 64$/bbl

Commodities team in 2CY26. It stands at average of 44.4$/bbl for June and

the Asia oil & gas team expects this spread to come down

to 28/40.5$/bbl in Q4CY26/CY26 respectively

Brent ($/bbl) WTI ($/bbl) Jet fuel cracks ($/bbl)

New GS Old GS New GS Old GS

Forecast Forecast Futures Forecast Forecast Futures New GS Old GS

2025 68 68 65 65 Forecast Forecast

2026 85 90 83 80 85 78

2027 75 80 75 70 75 71 2026 40.5 29.5

2028 71 75 74 66 70 69 2027 24 22

1Q26 78 78 76 72 72 72

2Q26 98 100 96 93 95 92 2028 19 19

3Q26 84 94 80 79 88 76 1Q26 37 34

4Q26 80 90 78 75 85 74

1Q27 78 86 77 74 81 72 2Q26 62 35

2Q27 76 82 76 71 77 71

3Q27 73 78 75 69 73 71 3Q26 35 25

4Q27 71 75 74 66 70 70 4Q26 28 24

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Signs of demand coming back despite elevated air fares