Mengniu Dairy: APAC Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day 2026 Takeaways - healthy recovery in liquid milk with growth acceleration

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mengniu Dairy: APAC Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day 2026 Takeaways - healthy recovery in liquid milk with growth acceleration

Equity Research

30 June 2026 | 9:52PM HKT

Mengniu Dairy: APAC Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day 2026

Takeaways - healthy recovery in liquid milk with growth acceleration

Leaf Liu

+852-3966-4169 | leaf.liu@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Christina Liu

+852-2978-6983 | christina.liu@gs.com

Valerie ZhouBottom line: We hosted Mengniu IR team in our event on June 30. Mgmt expressed +852-2978-0820 | valerie.zhou@gs.com

growing confidence in a broad-based recovery in 2026 with liquid milk maintaining Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

healthy growth YTD (up c.HSD% in Jan-May) and other categories accelerating vs.

last year (fresh milk/milk powder/cheese/ice cream growing at

30%+/c.30%/20%+/~HSD% yoy YTD vs. c.10%+/10%/22%/4% yoy in 2025). The

company believes the industry is moving toward a better supply-demand

balance as consumer demand has stabilized and begun to recover, while the gap

between scattered milk prices and institutional raw milk prices have continued to

narrow and merge on the supply side (signal for bottoming of raw milk price). Mgmt

attributed the company’s YTD outperformance to proactive engagement in

emerging channels (F&B value retailers/high-potential KAs), disciplined

promotions to support pricing discipline, and product innovation backed by supply

chain advantages. Mgmt sees upside to its FY26 guidance of MSD% revenue

growth given the strong performance in YTD across business lines, but still

prudently maintains its full-year guidance on a stable core OPM of 8.0% (flattish

yoy) via stringent opex savings and operating leverage to offset potentially mild

raw milk cost increase/GPM swing for liquid milk in 2H26, while remain positive