ZJLD (6979.HK): APAC Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day 2026 Takeaways: Strong momentum for Dazhen/Li Du with recovery in Zhen

研报英文原文证据摘录

ZJLD (6979.HK): APAC Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day 2026 Takeaways: Strong momentum for Dazhen/Li Du with recovery in Zhen

Goldman Sachs ZJLD (6979.HK)

momentum for Zhen Jiu/ Li Du brands; targeting 15% sales growth

ZJLD (6979.HK): Revise up 26-28E estimates on Da Zhen’s solid momentum, Zhen 15

recovery and Li Du’s national expansion; Neutral

Key Takeaways

We hosted ZJLD mgmt at our event on Jun 30th. Mgmt reiterated they see 2026 as an

inflection point with industry-wide bottoming-out signal while possible divergence

across individual players. The company will prioritize channel health/pricing system

stability and near-term sustainable growth over rapid growth in 2026. The mgmt

reiterated the upward revision of its full-year/1H26 guidance (c.-5% yoy sales decline

and Rmb500mn+ NP for 1H26, c.15% yoy sales growth and c.Rmb800mn NP for FY26)

due to faster-than-expected channel recovery post its active channel actions in 4Q25.

The mgmt expected overall GPM to improve slightly in 1H26 driven by higher GPM in

Zhen jiu and Xiangjiao (due to mix upgrade by Da zhen/higher GPM in Kaikouxiao)

partially offset by a stable GPM in Li du due to product mix. The mgmt also highlighted

lower sales expense ratio in 1H26 driven by more efficient marketing investments

replacing traditional shipment incentives.

By brand performance:

n Recovery in Zhen jiu has accelerated, with Da zhen and Zhen15 becoming key

growth drivers. Dazhen is expected to achieve Rmb500 GMV in 1H26 (-10% yoy

sales decline on a high base in 1H26 and 15% yoy growth for 2026 per mgmt), with

several hundred net increase of distributors YTD (targeting 5k qualified distributors

at end-2026), driven by regional expansion in core markets and market share gain on

sub-premium category.