Brazil Energy: Fuel Distribution: peaking margins but still healthy outlook in 2H and beyond

研报英文原文证据摘录

Brazil Energy: Fuel Distribution: peaking margins but still healthy outlook in 2H and beyond

Equity Research

30 June 2026 | 7:52PM BRT

Brazil Energy: Fuel Distribution: peaking margins but still healthy

outlook in 2H and beyond

One of the key highlights from our 1Q earnings season was the level of profitability Bruno Amorim, CFA

+55(11)3371-0764 |

posted by the fuel distributors in our coverage, mostly on the back of their relatively bruno.amorim@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

lower fuel supply cost in March. Recall, Ultrapar’s Ipiranga and Vibra Energia

Guilherme Costa Martins

delivered Adj. EBITDA margins of BRL 276/m3 and BRL 258/m3 in 1Q (vs. BRL +55(11)3372-3505 |

166/m3 on average for both in 4Q25, for reference). guilherme.costamartins@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Huama BelmonteOur early thoughts on 2Q earnings. We expect both companies to post even higher +55(11)3371-6972 |

margins in 2Q on the back of the competitive advantage provided by their quotas huama.belmonte@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

with PBR (which sold government subsidized fuels in the period) throughout the full

quarter (vs. only March in 1Q). For reference, we currently expect Vibra to post Adj.

EBITDA margins of BRL 320/m3 and Ultrapar’s Ipiranga BRL 305/m3 in 2Q. This

would be supported by i) relatively lower adherence by independent importers to the

government’s subsidy program (translating into domestic fuel prices below those of

the importing option), and ii) limited imports by PBR in 2Q (reducing availability of

cheap volumes to smaller/regional distributors). We are 9% above Bloomberg

consensus for Vibra and 15% above for Ultrapar at the EBITDA level for the quarter

(although our recent conversations with investors suggest the buy side might already