Clariant (CLN.S): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Clariant (CLN.S): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

Goldman Sachs Clariant (CLN.S)

Valuation & risks

Valuation

We are Neutral-rated on Clariant, with a 12-month price target of SFr8.5 (unchanged).

We value Clariant using an 8.2x (unchanged) EV/DACF multiple. We derive our multiple

by applying a factor of 0.79x (unchanged) to the full-cycle historical EV/DACF multiple of

10.4x. This factor is below 1 as forecast CROCI is below historical levels.

Risks

Key upside risks to our thesis:

n Improved overall economic conditions leading to a more rapid recovery of the

US and European consumer and increased discretionary spending supporting a

stronger than expected organic growth inflection for the Consumer Care focussed

business segment.

n A stronger than expected cyclical rebound / restocking cycle across US, China

and Europe leading to higher utilisation rates and a faster ramp in catalyst

replacement activity than we currently forecast. This would limit the downside we

see for the group’s Catalysis segment.

n A reacceleration in Electronics demand growth whether catalysed by a

replacement cycle or newly AI functionalised products leading to stronger than

expected earnings in the A&A segment.

n More efficient capital deployment than anticipated, leading to stronger cash

conversion than we currently forecast.

n Protectionist measures from EU policymakers favouring domestic producers and

reducing the competitive pressure from lower-priced Chinese exports that we

currently expect to continue.

n An earlier-than-expected favourable outcome related to the ethylene litigation

could in our view materially alter investor sentiment and is the main upside risk we

see for Clariant shares.

n Continuing market share gain despite MNC customers continuing to offer price