Despite macro noise, growth and credit trends remain stable

研报英文原文证据摘录

Despite macro noise, growth and credit trends remain stable

Exhibit 3: Job growth has moved back above the breakeven rate, Exhibit 4: The u-rate is unchanged from a year ago and less than 1pp

suggesting the labor market has bottomed out above its April 2023 trough

Nonfarm payroll growth (SA, m/m change, three- and 12-month averages) Change in u-rate from trough to peak in each business cycle (percentage

points)

3m average 12m average 6

150 5

Breakeven 3

(20k)

50 2

0 0 Current cycle

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

-50 Months

Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Jan-26 May-26 Source: BLS, BofA Global Research. Note: the light blue and red lines show prior cycles. Light blue =

expansion, red = recession. We have omitted the March-April 2020 recession to make the chart

Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, BofA Global Research easier to read. The u-rate troughed in February 2020 and peaked in April.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

2. Peer data reinforces benign credit trends. US consumer finance peers continue

to highlight stable-to-improving credit metrics, with no evidence of deterioration in

delinquencies despite weaker sentiment indicators. Management commentary

consistently points to a resilient consumer, supported by tight labour markets, real

income growth (wages outpacing inflation), and seasonal liquidity tailwinds (e.g.

higher tax refunds).

Exhibit 5: Despite consumer sentiment remaining weak, peers have called out consumer resilience supported by strong payrolls and jobs growth

Consumer Finance – 1Q26 earnings commentary

Date Provider Commentary

21st April Synchrony Financial "When you look at spendingpatterns,creditcontinuestooutperformourexpectations. So, I think the macro environment is still pretty constructive,

strong labor market.