High Yield Energy: Energy Weekly

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High Yield Energy: Energy Weekly

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High Yield Energy

Energy Weekly

Rystad sees more oversupply post war 26 June 2026

Rystad highlighted this week that the US-Iran war has left the global oil market more High Yield Credit

oversupplied than before the disruption began due to strong non-Middle East supply United States

growth and a faster-than-expected return of Persian Gulf barrels. They now forecast Energy

global crude and condensate growth of 4.7mmbl/d between 2025 and 2027 vs

3.4mmbbl/d in March of this year. Negotiations among the US and Iran continue and a Table of Contents

deal has yet to be met, but Rystad sees oil price risk skewed to the downside due to

several supply factors that could change its forecast. Namely, the pace of reopening the Sector Performance 2

Strait, subdued Chinese strategic petroleum rebuild unless prices decline further, and Commodity Prices 3

potential Iranian sanctions relief increasing its supply forecast. Despite a potentially Relative Value & Comparable Company Information 4

weaker oil price, Rystad still sees greater offshore spending due to energy security E&P Downside Sensitivity Analysis 10

concerns than prior to the war. Their estimate for global offshore greenfield capex over Midstream & Distribution Downside Sensitivity

the 2026 – 2030 period is now $612bn, +6.4% from the prior forecast. The increase is Analysis

driven by Southeast Asia, West Africa, Middle East, Western Europe and South America. Oilfield Services Downside Sensitivity Analysis 12

The only exceptions are North America and Central Asia that are reallocating of Midstream Overview 13

sanctioning capacity toward higher-return offshore opportunities elsewhere. E&P Hedging Overview 14

High Yield Energy underperformed the market this week