Global FX Strategy: Quick thoughts on NFP and EURGBP

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Global FX Strategy: Quick thoughts on NFP and EURGBP

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01 Jul 2026 15:50:49 ET │ 10 pages

Global FX Strategy

Quick thoughts on NFP and EURGBP

CITI'S TAKE

We see Thursday's US labor market data as asymmetrically skewed

towards a stronger USD, though an in-line print should only see limited

repricing, in our view. EURGBP has seen a major bearish break below 0.86,

but with real money flows drying up and fundamentals still bearish GBP, Daniel TobonAC

we prefer to stand aside and wait to see if this technical break has follow +1-212-816-8340

through; if so, the next support area is around 0.8450-0.85. daniel.tobon@citi.com

Brian Levine

NFP +1-212-816-6896

brian.levine@citi.com

Osamu Takashima

With markets still pricing +7bps of hikes for the July FOMC meeting, Thursday's US +81-3-6776-3251

labor market data will be key. US Economics forecasts +25k for NFP (+115k osamu.takashima@citi.com

expected), unemployment rate at 4.3% (in line with expectations), and average

hourly earnings MoM at 0.2% (0.3% expected).

We see the USD asymmetry clearly skewed higher into the data, as it will be hard

for markets to price out much of the +7bps for July ahead of CPI and PPI (July 14 and

15, respectively). Should data come out in line with Citi Economics forecasts, we

would still expect the market to keep some premium for a July hike, though a few

basis points may come out, marginally weighing on USD. Numbers in line with

expectations should see minimal reaction, especially ahead of a long US holiday

weekend. However, any upside surprise - particularly in wages - could keep markets

worried about inflation. USD would likely overshoot the rates move, as well, given

momentum chasing after last FOMC meeting and that DXY (per our relative rates