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The Point for Australia/NZ
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The Point for Australia/NZ
better operating momentum and a more favourable currency. Our earnings
forecasts are unchanged. We retain our Buy rating and $61.00 target price.
Adrian Lemme, CFA
Coles Group Ltd (COL.AX) - A time for paws
Coles has confirmed that it is in talks with TPG to acquire Greencross. Subject to
the final price and terms, we have our concerns should the transaction proceed.
Strategically, we see challenges with the deal (details below). We are also cautious
of any PE deal, particularly considering the business has been for sale for years. We
believe a capital raising to fund the deal may lack investor appetite but there is
also the possibility it could be fully debt-funded. We've long argued in favour of
capital management to capitalise on balance sheet strength. We believe Coles
management may wish to consider the market's response today.
Collins Foods Ltd. (CKF.AX) - Downgrade to Neutral: Missing the secret recipe in
Europe
Collins is a good business (especially with the Taco Bell distraction gone), with a
strong balance sheet that should facilitate further organic and inorganic expansion
combined with a reasonably undemanding valuation. However, the business is
facing multi-year inflationary pressures in Australia which it plans to offset partly
by menu innovation (e.g., KWENCH) and daypart expansion (breakfast and late-
night trials) where the longevity of these initiatives is less clear. In addition, much
of the group’s expected store growth is in Germany where we are incrementally
more cautious following the sudden slowdown in sales. Downgrade to Neutral.
Sam Teeger
CSL Ltd (CSL.AX) - VOICE trial outcome interesting but likely only short-lived
benefit for CSL
CSL's partner, Akebia has highlighted early stoppage of a trial, (VOICE) conducted
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