Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST.AX): Production & cash beat vs VA consensus, new CEO announced

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Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST.AX): Production & cash beat vs VA consensus, new CEO announced

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST.AX)

02 July 2026 Citi Research

Northern Star Resources Ltd

Valuation

Our rounded A$29.70/sh target price for Northern Star is based on a 50/50 blend of 1.0x NAV (A$28.64./sh) and forward

EV/EBITDA of 7.5x. Multiples are in line with large cap peers. We assume a real WACC of 5% to discounted cash flows over the

life of the group’s individual assets and a LT gold price of US$3,600/oz. Our DCF valuation is net of cash and overheads.

Risks

The key risks to our investment thesis include macroeconomic developments affecting the gold price and exchange rates,

operational risks that might affect volumes and input costs, and political risks that might affect costs and the company’s

reputation.

Mining operations – the style of mining method utilised at underground operations is typically smaller-scale and not without

technical risk i.e. seismic issues and changes to the mine plan i.e. mining lower grade ore when gold prices are high.

Downside risks to earnings include cost-creep as operations get deeper, especially if grades fall; and to NPV as reserves are

depleted. Upside risks to our achieving our forecasts and target price include a better-than-expected operating performance

from the company’s assets.

Project development – production growth is dependent on delivery of the expansion at KCGM, development of the greenfields

Hemi project and opening of additional mining areas across operations. Development and turnaround of projects is not without

execution and technical risk.

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be less/more negative than we anticipate, the stock could

materially outperform/underperform our target price.