Canadian Solar (CSIQ.O): Musings From Mesquite

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Canadian Solar (CSIQ.O): Musings From Mesquite

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30 Jun 2026 00:00:30 ET │ 11 pages

Canadian Solar (CSIQ.O)

Musings From Mesquite

CITI'S TAKE

Sell / High Risk We toured CSIQ’s TX module facility and met with management. Once

ramped to 10GW this year, Mesquite will be the single-largest module Short-Term View: Downside, expires 19-JUL-26

plant in the U.S. CSIQ could potentially recognize ~$700mm in 45X Price (29 Jun 26 16:00) US$14.76

module assembly credits at full utilization, which is significant, especially Target price US$11.00

given an apparent repeat credit buyer base and order visibility beyond a Expected share price return -25.5%

safe harbor backlog. However, the $0.07/W credit partly goes towards Expected dividend yield 0.0%

higher domestic manufacturing cost. High automation along with Expected total return -25.5%

expertise transfer from SE Asia should facilitate IN's cell capacity ramp,

Market Cap US$1,002M though full ~6GW utilization appears to be a 2H27 event at the earliest, in

our view, suggesting continued NT reliance on PFE-compliant cell imports,

which is a cost risk with the looming polysilicon Section 232 outcome.

Lastly, we expect SE Asia BESS capacity to be increased from the current Vikram BagriAC

3GWh to serve domestic U.S. orders of likely >5GWh next year. +1-212-816-4506

vikram.bagri@citi.com

Mesquite Module Facility Theodore Giletti, CFA

+1-212-816-3835

Mesquite operates 24/7 and only shuts down on the last day of each month. The theodore.giletti@citi.com

plant runs four production lines in Building A and is ramping further two lines in

Vignesh GundaBuilding B. Lines 5 and 6 have a more streamlined layout, giving them higher output

+1-212-816-9667potential than the earlier lines. Mesquite is on track to reach its 10GW nameplate