Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – FMC Corporation (FMC.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Sales Growth (%) (8.5) (7.4) 6.8 7.0 29 Jul 2026 Q2 2026 FMC Corp Earnings Release

27 Oct 2026 -

Total Net Sales ($, mm) 3,887 3,600 3,847 4,116 Q3 2026 FMC Corp Earnings Release

02 Nov 2026

Gross Profit Margin (%) 40.1 39.9 40.1 40.1

Total EBITDA ($, mm) 843 670 760 845

EBITDA Margin (%) 21.7 18.6 19.8 20.5

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Rynaxypyr post-patent volume & ASP amidst RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

increased generic competition in 2026+ Diamide pricing holds up against generic 670 Robust R&D program developing many new pressure EBITDA

active ingredients Significant cash collection ($, mm) 543 730

Pipeline products advancing in R&D Third party acknowledgement of patented 686

stage/launching molecule value

Improved FCF conversion Cost savings

EPS

1.47 2.40 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE ($)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE 1.73 Balance sheet leverage/FCF conversion

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Further inventory/receivable write-downs 0-10% China and India Diamides addressable market smaller than Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

0-10% MEA expected/generic competitive behavior Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

20-30% Europe ex UK increasingly intense

30-40% Latin America India tariffs on active ingredients

30-40% North America

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 39.8%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x

HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be