Quota Allocations – Smaller Taiwanese Quota a Positive Surprise

研报英文原文证据摘录

Quota Allocations – Smaller Taiwanese Quota a Positive Surprise

UpdateMValuation Methodology and Risks

Acerinox SA (ACX.MC)

Our price target is set on an EV/EBITDA methodology using average estimated EBITDA over

2027-28. We use a target multiple of 6.6x for the stainless business, in line with the stock's

historical average (over 2011-24), to look through the typical cyclicality of the steel industry.

We value the alloys business at 9.0x, a discount to the current alloy peer average given its

lower-margin products.

Risks to Upside

n A turnaround in Acerinox Europa and Columbus profitability

n Stronger US demand than anticipated

n Upside to Haynes acquisition synergy target

Risks to Downside

n Slowdown in US demand, or shift in buyers' preference to imports

n Further strike action in Spain weighing on European profitability

n Capex overruns, limiting cash generation and shareholder return prospects

Aperam SA (APAM.AS)

Our PT is set on an EV/EBITDA methodology using avg. estimated 2027-28 EBITDA. We use

a target multiple of 6.4x for the stainless/recycling businesses, in line with the avg. of its

closest peers' historical EV/EBITDA, to look through the industry's typical cyclicality. For the

Alloys/Specialities business, we use a higher multiple of 7.0x, but still a discount to alloy peers

given lower value-add products.

n European demand inflection sooner than anticipated

n Exceeding USAP acquisition synergy targets

n Successful execution on self-help initiatives

n Increase in low-cost steel exports into Europe

n A demand pullback across Europe and Brazil

n Increased capex weighing on shareholder returns prospects

Outokumpu Oyj (OUT1V.HE)

2027-28, with Ferrochrome valued at NPV. We use a target multiple of 6.1x, in line with its