Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Acerinox- AcerinoxSA (ACX.MC) SA (ACX.MC)

Alloys-driven re-rating prospects, leading US operations.

PRICE TARGET €19.20 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Our price target is set on an EV/EBITDA methodology using average estimated EBITDA over ▪Acerinox offers resilient earnings via its

2027-28. We use a target multiple of 6.6x for the stainless business, in line with the stock's outsized US stainless exposure and high-

historical average (over 2011-24), to look through the typical cyclicality of the steel industry. margin Alloys platform.

We value the alloys business at 9.0x, a discount to the current alloy peer average given its ▪US demand remains better supported by

lower-margin products. reshoring, local-for-local investment and

strategic capex. €18.30

~€1bn through-cycleConsensus Price Target Distribution €14.80 €23.00 ▪Management’s EBITDA bridge is not yet reflected in MS PT

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates consensus or MSe expectations.

▪SOTP focus is rising, supported by

potential US listing optionality and stronger

alloys peer momentum.

RISK REWARD CHART ▪VDM weakness remains a near-term

offset, but longer-term Alloys re-rating

EUR potential remains intact.

€28.90€28.90(+66.28%)€28.90(+66.28%)(+66.28%) Consensus Rating Distribution

69% Overweight

6% Equal-weight

25% Underweight

€19.20€19.20(+10.47%)€19.20(+10.47%)(+10.47%) MS Rating

€17.38€17.38€17.38

16 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

8 Risk Reward Themes

€8.40€8.40(-51.67%)€8.40(-51.67%)(-51.67%) Pricing Power: Positive

Self-help: Positive

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research