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Inflation has a memory problem: AI is adding to core (PCE) inflation before it subtracts, with memory and hardware prices skewed higher in the near term. Price gains may moderate as supply improves, but the Fed will likely find it hard to dismiss AI-related inflation entirely.
研报英文原文证据摘录
Inflation has a memory problem: AI is adding to core (PCE) inflation before it subtracts, with memory and hardware prices skewed higher in the near term. Price gains may moderate as supply improves, but the Fed will likely find it hard to dismiss AI-related inflation entirely.
FICC Research
Credit & Macro Research
29 June 2026
US Economics, Inflation-Linked and Credit Research
Inflation has a memory problem SIGNATURE
AI is adding to core (PCE) inflation before it subtracts, with
memory and hardware prices skewed higher in the near term.
Price gains may moderate as supply improves, but the Fed US Economics
will likely find it hard to dismiss AI-related inflation entirely. Pooja+1 212 Sriram526 0713
pooja.sriram@barclays.com
• AI-related categories have been a meaningful source of upward pressure in PCE inflation BCI, US
recently, led by electricity and computer software & accessories—the category that shows Investment-Grade Technology
the clearest imprint of the explosion in memory chip prices. We estimate these categories Andrew Keches, CFA
have cumulatively added about 25bp to annual headline and 20bp to annual core PCE price +1 212 412 5248
inflation in recent months. andrew.keches@barclays.com
BCI, US
• Memory inflation still has legs, but the pace may moderate as the cycle matures. Robust
Remy Neuhaus
data-center demand, constrained supply, and longer-dated purchasing agreements are
+1 212 526 6840
expected to keep memory prices supported near-term, with rising costs filtering into PCs and remy.neuhaus@barclays.com
other hardware. However, in our view, the trajectory is more likely to shift from sharp step- BCI, US
ups toward a more measured and differentiated trend across product categories.
US inflation-linked strategy
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