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AB-InBev (ABI.BR): Sequential volume improvement in US/LatAm tempered by China. Core attractions remain but stock may drift ahead of results.
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AB-InBev (ABI.BR): Sequential volume improvement in US/LatAm tempered by China. Core attractions remain but stock may drift ahead of results.
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29 Jun 2026 16:06:21 ET │ 17 pages
AB-InBev (ABI.BR)
Sequential volume improvement in US/LatAm tempered by China. Core
attractions remain but stock may drift ahead of results.
CITI'S TAKE
ABInBev remains on-track to deliver against consensus FY26E estimates.
As such, we expect management to reiterate its FY26E 4-8% organic
BuyEBITDA guidance with the upcoming Q2/H1 results. However, although full-
year delivery remains on-track, we trim our Q2 volumes by -20bps to +0.6% Short-Term View: Upside, expires 12-AUG-26
in this report to reflect recent weaker volumes in China. With the scale of the Price (29 Jun 26 17:30) €73.52
current football tournament benefit still unclear, and given already
Target price €79.00favourable investor positioning, the lack of new near-term positives may
mean ABInBev shares drift ahead of the July 30th print. Nevertheless, with Expected share price return 7.5%
the September CMD likely to be supportive (favourable evolving US portfolio Expected dividend yield 2.0%
mix story, hidden value in BEES), we reiterate our 12-mth Buy rating. Our
near-term stock preferences in beer are Carlsberg, ABInBev and Heineken Expected total return 9.4%
in that order. Market Cap €148,455M
US$168,971M
Q2 volume benefits from the World Cup may be tempered by recent China
weakness — Despite a likely uplift to Q2 and FY26E volumes from the tournament,
the unwind of Q1’s Easter benefit (mainly in Mexico, SA and Europe) coupled with
recent weaker beer volumes in China due to poor weather in April/May means we Price Performance
trim our Q2 volume forecast to +0.6% (previously +0.8%). This compares to current
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