Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

Price Price Target Technology Diffusion: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 30

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE €99.50 BASE CASE €82.50 BEAR CASE €49.50

~22.5x our bull case NTM EPS ~19.1x our base case NTM EPS ~12.7x our bear case NTM EPS

Our bull case assumes a faster recovery in We forecast FY26 organic EBITDA growth of Our bear case assumes a recession scenario,

US volumes (post Bud Light) and continued +6.6%, towards the upper end of the which sees consumers cut back on spending

strength in EM. We model organic EBITDA guidance range of 4-8%. We reflect the due to rising cost of living, leading to

growth in 2026 of 7.8%, rising to 10% in $6bn SBB. Our P/E and DCF blend valuation volume declines across key markets in 2026

2027, and 7% thereafter, above the mid- implies NTM P/E at 19.1x, a ~19% premium to and beyond. With transactional headwinds

point of ABI's mid-term guidance range, and EU Staples, reflecting the group's superior creating a drag on margins, this scenario

reflecting enhanced execution. With FCF generation. sees only +2% growth in organic EBITDA in

accelerated growth and faster deleveraging 2026 and beyond, below the group's 4-8%

paving the way for more substantial annual target. We assume the stock would

buybacks, we assume for the P/E component trade at a ~20% P/E discount to EU Staples