A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S (MAERSKb.CO): Guidance upgraded – positive

研报英文原文证据摘录

A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S (MAERSKb.CO): Guidance upgraded – positive

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (MAERSKb.CO)

29 June 2026 Citi Research

A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S

Valuation

We value Maersk using a 50/50 blend of price/book and EV/EBITDA. For EV/EBITDA, we apply the bottom quartile (previously

bottom decile) multiple seen across 2010–19, and we apply the bottom quartile (previously bottom 5%) figure across the same

period for P/B. This is factoring in the market’s likely scepticism toward the sector in the context of both a challenging supply

outlook and demand concerns arising from ongoing geopolitical issues. We apply the EV/EBITDA to a 50/50 blend of 2028E

and 2026E EBITDA. This reflects the fact that our 2026E EBITDA is meaningfully lower than what we (and management)

consider to be mid-term norms. Our target price is DKK17,078.

Risks

Certain industry- and company-specific risks could prevent Maersk from achieving our target price. Container shipping profits

have historically been volatile, reflecting: the volume and pattern of trade; freight rates that are acutely sensitive to supply

imbalances and to market share-driven strategies of competitors; and the volatility in bunker costs. Also in the port segment,

risks include weaker pricing; non-renewal of material concessions and/or failure to win further concessions; capex overspend;

and delays in scheduled expansion projects.

Upside risks to our target price being exceeded include: 1) an improvement in consumer confidence, i.e. higher-than-expected

consumer demand, better supply and demand dynamics through short-term capacity management, resulting in a favorable

freight rate environment; 2) Maersk continuing to win market share through integrated logistics offering, resulting in lower-