A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S (MAERSKb.CO): Increasing forecasts on higher freight rates and lower bunker

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A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S (MAERSKb.CO): Increasing forecasts on higher freight rates and lower bunker

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24 Jun 2026 19:31:53 ET │ 15 pages

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S

(MAERSKb.CO)

Increasing forecasts on higher freight rates and lower bunker

CITI'S TAKE

We remain Neutral on Maersk. We continue to believe that upgrades to Neutral

2026E consensus are likely but remain cautious in the mid-term due to high Price (24 Jun 26 17:00) Dkr16,060.00

industry delivery volumes in 2027E-29E. We model $8,580m of 2026E Target price Dkr17,078.00↑EBITDA vs BBG consensus at $6,918m. We raise our forecast from $7,365m

per A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (MAERSKb.CO) - Increasing our forecasts from Dkr16,444.00

following 1Q26 and improving 2H26E supply-demand balance. Since 29 Expected share price

May (the publication of that report), the CCFI freight rate index is up c.17% 6.3% returnand Singapore and Rotterdam 0.5% sulphur bunker indices have fallen 11%

and 16%, respectively. Factoring in these data points drives the uplift to our Expected dividend yield 0.0%

forecasts. We raise our TP from DKK16,444 toDKK17,078 on the back of our Expected total return 6.3%

higher forecasts. Market Cap Dkr231,605M

US$35,265MEquation of freight rates and bunker fuel suggests meaningful upside to 2026E

EBITDA consensus: Since we last published on 29 May, the CCFI freight rate

composite is up 17%, with bunker down a double digit %. We therefore assume QoQ

freight rates up 15% in 2Q26E and 5% in 3Q26E. We continue to assume bunker

prices up 79% in 2Q but now assume that they fall 16% in 3Q26E. Price Performance

(RIC: MAERSKb.CO, BB: MAERSKB

New analysis suggests that worst of supply glut will likely not fully impact until DC)

2H27E: In 2027E, c.9% of the existing global fleet is set to be delivered. We have the