LatAm At A Glance: Politics driving the macro outlook

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LatAm At A Glance: Politics driving the macro outlook

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LatAm At A Glance

Politics driving the macro outlook

Economics: Hydration break 25 June 2026

The global economy withstood the supply shock. In the horserace between lower oil GEM Economics

prices and Fed hikes, we now expect global growth to reach 3.2% in 2026 and accelerate LatAm

to 3.5% in 2027, a mild 10bp upward revision vs our April projections after the Iran war Table of Contents

erupted. See our report Mid-Year review: Hydration Break 22 June 2026.

LDM strategy 2

We expect LatAm growth of 2.2% in 2026 and have revised the regional forecast up by

0.1pp, reflecting lower oil prices in our updated assumptions and stronger expected US External debt strategy 3

growth. The upgrade is driven by Argentina and the CAC countries. In contrast, we cut Equity Strategy 4

our 2027 regional growth forecast by 0.3pp to 2.2%, mainly on weaker expected growth Brazil 5

in Brazil. Oil price movements linked to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East Mexico 8

have had only a limited effect on regional growth, with relatively small impacts on Brazil Argentina 11

and Mexico, although the transmission varies across countries. Chile 13

Politics will remain a key macro driver across the region. The trend toward electing Colombia 15

right-leaning administrations appears set to continue in Peru and Colombia, based on Peru 17

preliminary results. Brazil’s October general elections are the region’s main political Ecuador 19

event this year, in an election that remains competitive. In 2027, attention will shift to Uruguay 20

elections in El Salvador (February) and Guatemala. Venezuela 21

Central America and Caribbean 22

LDM: A hawkish detour Macro, Rates and FX Forecasts 27