INNIO (INIO): Marginal supplier of prime gas power for data centers; Initiate at Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

INNIO (INIO): Marginal supplier of prime gas power for data centers; Initiate at Buy

Goldman Sachs INNIO (INIO)

Exhibit 8: INIO is a fully gas focused distributed energy Exhibit 9: INIO’s core product differentiates on heat rates,

solution whereas peers are more varied across end fast start capabilities, modularity and low cost

markets and solutions redundancy

Largest/second largest end-market outside Power/Gas (FY25 Start up time by engine type

reported)

60%

60 mins

50%

50% seconds)

(in

40% 37% 37% type

30% 25% engine

by

20% time

10% Start

5-10 mins 5-10 mins

0% 45 seconds

Marine Construction Distribution Electrification

Industries

INIO Simple cycle turbines Fuel cells Combined cycle

Wartsila CAT Cummins GEV turbines

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: INIO company slides

Exhibit 10: INIO expects the TAM for its BTM solution to

grow by ~50% annually over the next 5 years

Sources of global incremental DC demand (GW)

27 GW

~20%

25 CAGR

~50%

CAGR

10 GW

2025 2030E

BTM Grid

Source: INIO company slides

2. High revenue and backlog visibility via data center exposure

High revenue and backlog visibility via data center exposure. As of 1Q26, backlog

had almost quintupled since 4Q24 ($4.8bn vs. ~$1.0bn). Data centers are a big reason

why as they accounted for ~60% of Equipment order intake in 2025 vs. only 24% in

2024. This explosion in backlog provides significant near-term visibility with almost all

of our 2026 projected Equipment revenue ($2.4bn) already in backlog. Additionally,

there is likely upside to our 2027 Equipment revenue estimate ($3.8bn) as over half the

backlog is expected to ship in 2027. One limiting factor is how quickly INIO will be able

to ramp capacity. The company expects to ramp from 3.5GW to 7.0GW by 2028 and