UCB (UCB.BR) 1H26 preview: Expecting strong Bimzelx performance

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UCB (UCB.BR) 1H26 preview: Expecting strong Bimzelx performance

Goldman Sachs UCB (UCB.BR)

n For 1H26, we are 2%/5%/1% ahead of VA consensus estimates on Total

Revenue/Adjusted EBITDA/Core EPS driven by Bimzelx. On Bimzelx, we forecast a

15% net price reduction in the US assuming 15% of the HS prescriptions in 1H26

were paid at the full list price vs. 33% in 2H25 (see below for detailed calculations).

Our estimates on the price reduction are less pronounced than VA consensus

estimates which imply a 20% reduction. Overall, our estimates on Bimzelx US/Global

sales for 1H26 are 6%/4% ahead.

n For FY26, we are 4%/3% higher than the mid-points of company guidance on

Revenue/Adjusted EBITDA, partially driven by FX. Based on most recent FX rates,

we forecast 1%/4% headwinds on Revenue/Adjusted EBITDA for FY26, vs. 3%/7%

headwinds based on FY25 year-end rates. We expect UCB to reiterate guidance.

n Cosentyx removed from the formulary list of a Medicare plan. According to our

search, the Aetna SilverScript Choice (PDP) plan has removed Cosentyx from its

formulary list, while maintaining coverage for Bimzelx, supporting Bimzelx’s uptake

in the US. That said, we see a potential Bimzelx deal with the third of the three

largest PBMs with which it does not have an agreement as the key drug uptake driver

moving forward, for which no update has been given by UCB.

n We are comfortable with Bimzelx’s competitiveness in the context of updated

sonelokimab maintenance data and expect investor focus on the upcoming

remibrutinib and lutikizumab Phase 3 readouts in 2H26. Despite sonelokimab

showing optically greater response rates in the maintenance phase, we are

comfortable with Bimzelx’s competitiveness given that: 1) sonelokimab failed to