Exail: Safran‘s offer undervalues the target‘s fundamental strengths

研报英文原文证据摘录

Exail: Safran‘s offer undervalues the target‘s fundamental strengths

29 June 2026

Aleksander Peterc

+33 1 57 29 45 25

Global Aerospace & Defense aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com

Exail Technologies

Rating

Outperform

Price Target

EXA.FP 155.00 EUR (167.00 OLD)

Exail: Safran's offer undervalues the target's fundamental

strengths

On Friday 26/06, Bloomberg reported (and Exail confirmed) that Safran has opened Close Date 26 Jun 2026

exclusive talks to buy Exail at €128.5/share, via the Gorgé family block followed by a

EXA.FP Close Price (EUR) 116.70

mandatory offer. The headline +37.9% premium flatters a price depressed by the unresolved

Price Target (EUR) 155.00

ICG exit; Safran’s bid sits 17% below our updated PT (€155/sh.) and 13% below the Bloomberg

Upside/(Downside) 33%

average consensus sell-side target (€148). We reiterate Outperform and believe the €128.50

52-Week Range 159.20/70.70

offer is inadequate; we would view a bid in the €140-160 range more reasonable.

EDME 1,580.77

Sound strategic logic for Safran, with some caveats. The addition of Exail would extend FYE Dec

Safran Electronics & Defense (Exail’s FOG INS would complement Safran’s RLG & HRG INS) Div Yield NA

and would add a fast-growing autonomous MCM franchise. However, the INS overlap could Market Cap (EUR) (M) 1,989

raise antitrust issues, and synergies appear thin in Maritime Robotics as Safran is light in naval. EV (EUR) (M) 2,115

Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

ICG is the main binding constraint. A change of control overrides the orderly 30/09/2026 Absolute (%) 43.2 (9.2) 42.8 24.5

lock-up, accelerating the ICG buy-out and the employee puts, repricing them onto transaction EDME (%) 7.5 2.0 8.0 17.6