India Payments: Volumes, margins and revenue pools - 2026 version

研报英文原文证据摘录

India Payments: Volumes, margins and revenue pools - 2026 version

29 June 2026

India Financials

India Payments: Volumes, margins and revenue pools - 2026

version

We update our estimate of the Indian payments revenue pool, pegging total industry net Pranav Gundlapalle

+91 226 842 1407 revenue pool at ~INR 185 bn (and gross revenue pool of ~INR 300 bn). Industry profitability

pranav.gundlapalle@bernsteinsg.com continues to be supported by select high-margin segments such as card processing, bill

payments, and device rentals, even as transaction volumes remain predominantly driven

Ishan Mittal by UPI. Looking ahead, we expect volumes to sustain a growth trajectory of 20%+ while

+91 226 842 1442

ishan.mittal@bernsteinsg.com margins remain stable.

Anirudh Gupta UPI continues to drive strong volume growth: India’s transition toward cashless

+91 226 842 1456 payments remains firmly intact, with total payment value growing by ~22% in FY26, taking

anirudh.gupta@bernsteinsg.com the cashless payments-to-GDP ratio to ~35%. While UPI P2P transactions and bank

transfers grow at a steady pace, UPI payments accounted for the bulk of incremental

growth. In contrast, cash-based transactions continue to decline, with ATM withdrawals

falling by 11% in volume terms. Within retail merchant payments, UPI remains the key

growth driver, registering ~27% YoY growth, while card spends moderated during FY26,

with credit and debit cards growing at 12% and -16%, respectively. On the infrastructure

side, the ecosystem continued to scale at a steady pace, with ~13% growth in UPI-enabled

soundbox/smart speaker devices.

Stable margins with visible levers for improvement: Net payment margins for the

industry remain in the ~6–8 bps range, supported by higher-margin segments such as bill