GS recycling price tracker points to sequential price acceleration in 2Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

GS recycling price tracker points to sequential price acceleration in 2Q

Goldman Sachs Americas Environmental Services

1. Our Environmental Services recycling price tracker is +30% sequentially in 2Q vs

1Q. This is well ahead of company guidance during 1Q26 earnings season that prices

were tracking up ~5% sequentially 2Q vs 1Q. Our model weighs OCC (Recycled

Cardboard) by ~60% and HDPE and LDPE prices by ~20% each. We estimate our model

captures ~70% of our coverage’s recycling basket value, with the balance coming from

other recyclables outside cardboard and plastics.

n 2Q Recycled cardboard prices are tracking +30% qoq and +3% yoy. Run-rate

recycled cardboard prices are on pace to exit 2Q at +15% above the 2Q average.

n High-density polyethylene (HDPE) prices are tracking +56% qoq in 2Q and 77% yoy,

and current spot prices are on pace to exit 2Q at 18% below the 2Q average.

n Linear low-density polyethylene (LDPE) prices are tracking +18% qoq in 2Q and

+18% yoy, and current spot prices are on pace to exit 2Q at 7% below the 2Q

average.

Exhibit 1: GS recycling price index model QoQ vs

Environmental Services reported recycling price index QoQ

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

1Q2021 2Q2021 3Q2021 4Q2021 1Q2022 2Q2022 3Q2022 4Q2022 1Q2023 2Q2023 3Q2023 4Q2023 1Q2024 2Q2024 3Q2024 4Q2024 1Q2025 2Q2025 3Q2025 4Q2025 1Q2026

GS recycling price index model QoQ

Environmental Services recycling price index based on WM and RSG reported

recycling prices

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2. We estimate every 10% move in recycling prices translates to a ~0.4% EBITDA

impact for our coverage and nearly 2x the impact to EPS and FCF. For illustrative

purposes, if recycling prices are tracking up +15-30% sequentially vs guidance of up 5%