The Point for Australia/NZ

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The Point for Australia/NZ

Australia Retail - Retail sales surprise to the upside again in May

ABS retail categories grew by 5.7% YoY in May (April: +4.8% YoY). Food grew

strongly (+4.3%) while the decline in Alcohol & Tobacco of ~4% was far more

moderate than recent months, consistent with market feedback of some

stabilsation in tobacco. Despite low consumer confidence, growth in discretionary

categories was strong again. Household goods (+6.4% YoY) and Clothing &

Footwear (+7.2% YoY) stood out. We think the strength has been helped by lower

than anticipated petrol pricing, however anecdotal industry feedback suggests

activity has slowed materially following the Federal Budget in mid-May in certain

categories. Moreover, the tailwind from lower fuel looks set to unwind with the fuel

excise discount set to end 1st August. All states grew at a faster rate with

Queensland and Western Australia recording the largest increase in sales growth.

Our top picks in retail are JB Hi-Fi and Coles.

Adrian Lemme, CFA

Australia/NZ Economics - Key AU/NZ data forecasts for the week beginning

June 29

The RBA’s Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Chris Kent will speak next

Monday at the RBA’s Sydney office on Additional Monetary Policy Tools;

Reflections and a New Framework. We expect the speech to discuss balance sheet

policies and possibly targeted lending operations. The speech will include Q&A and

is open to the media. The RBA will release the May MPB Meeting Minutes and

private sector credit data. There is also New Zealand sentiment and home values

data for June.

Josh Williamson | Faraz Syed

Global

Global Commodities - The worst is likely over for systematic curve carry

strategies

We expect commodities systematic curve carry strategies to continue to recover as