Argentina Multi-Asset: Remaining constructive into 2H26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Argentina Multi-Asset: Remaining constructive into 2H26

Argentina Multi-Asset

25 June 2026 Citi Research

Figure 3. Our Argentina Energy Trade balance forecast Figure 4. Argentina debt maturities

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research, Ministerio de Economia

While polling suggests recent weak economic activity has impacted Milei govt’s

popularity, we believe 2027 election risk appear to be relatively overstated by

markets as (i) President Milei’s popularity scores compare favorably versus other

presidents at this point of their cycles, and (ii) the economic activity should improve

over the NTM helping a more competitive ticket. We agree with our economist’s

view there is a transformation underway in Argentina, that is not merely a shift in

economic policy — it is a broad socio-economic and very complex cultural

overhaul. In this context, the opposition may face a challenging environment

absent a significant deterioration in economic conditions. For further details,

please see: Argentina Economics: Reform, Trust, and the Race Against the Clock.

The current Congress passed several pieces of legislation, namely a favorable

budget, the Fiscal Innocence Law and more importantly the Labor Modernization

reform. We see the following priorities for the 2H26:

With La Libertad Avanza holding a strengthened but still non-majority position in

Congress post the October 2025 midterms, the following bills represent the core of

the near-term legislative agenda:

n Super RIGI (introduced May 2026, pending passage): Targets $1B+ projects in

new industries — AI, semiconductors, green hydrogen, LNG, SMRs, EVs —