Misumi Group (9962.T): In Depth - Focus on organizational reforms, US growth potential

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Misumi Group (9962.T): In Depth - Focus on organizational reforms, US growth potential

Misumi Group (9962.T)

25 June 2026 Citi Research

Future points of debate — 1) Fictiv's earnings outlook and synergy realization, 2)

demand recovery trends and earnings progress, 3) data center-related earnings

outlook, 4) competitive situation with Keyence subsidiary Makerz and Yiheda, 5)

the possibility of additional buyback announcements (current minimum required

cash balance guideline is ¥70bn), 6) organizational and strategic changes

accompanying President Shimizu's appointment, etc.

What's next? — We expect Misumi to announce Q1 results in late July. Our Q1

forecasts: sales of ¥120.0bn (+21% YoY); OP of ¥13.5bn (+40%). We note the rate of

progress with the buyback (capped at ¥30bn) announced at Q4 results was c3% on

a value basis as of end-May.

1) Valuations and the share price

¥5,000 target price based on FY3/28E We set a target price of ¥5,000, based on our FY3/28 forecasts and a PER of 25x.

earnings, PER of 25x Historically, Misumi Group’s PER (based on Bloomberg consensus estimates for the

following fiscal year) has generally ranged from 15x-30x. The current multiple is

around 22x, which is relatively low given that the company is in a period of

expanding demand. It also represents a roughly 20% discount to the multiples of

other FA companies.

Concerns about low exposure to chip- The main reasons for Misumi’s PER discount are 1) concern about intensifying

related products and intensifying competition from China’s Yiheda and 2) the company’s low earnings exposure to

competition priced in; significant potential the semiconductor industry (particularly front-end fabrication) and high exposure

for re-rating to the auto industry.