Puma SE: 2Q to be below 1Q

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Puma SE: 2Q to be below 1Q

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Puma SE

2Q to be below 1Q

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 27.00 EUR | Price: 28.13 EUR

2Q should confirm the FY guidance 23 June 2026

Sales: after a reassuring 1Q (-1% cc sales decline), the quarterly phasing of the FY26 Equity

guidance of a low to mid-single digit organic sales decline calls for 2Q being the worst

quarter of the year, in our view. We expect a 9% cc sales decline, with a temporary rise

Key Changesof the headwinds from the discontinuation of the undesirable wholesale business and

from lower promotionality in stores and in e-commerce. In this context and given muted (EUR) Previous Current

sector growth (low to mid-single digit trend in 2Q, on our estimates), we do not expect a 2026E Rev (m) 6,828.5 6,894.2

FY sales guidance upgrade. EBIT: while the FY guidance calls for a €50m-€150m 2027E Rev (m) 7,067.8 7,137.1

reported EBIT loss (a range which could be narrowed, as per the recent comments from 2028E Rev (m) 7,431.9 7,506.0

the new CFO), we anticipate a worse than VA consensus €58m reported EBIT loss in 2Q 2026E EBITDA (m) 352.0 354.4

(€45m when excluding one offs). It combines the headwind from the sales drop with the 2027E EBITDA (m) 687.5 688.3

benefits from i) the gross margin (GM) repair to 47%, up 80bp YoY and broadly back to 2028E EBITDA (m) 895.2 898.7

its 2Q24 level (inventory impairment reversal, boost from channel mix and freight), and

ii) a >6% opex decline ex one offs (staff cuts). Overall, this leads to an estimated c.€90m Thierry Cota >> Research Analyst

2Q net income loss (above 1Q financial expenses, no minorities, very small tax boost) vs BofASE (France)

the VA consensus at -€108m. We modify our FY estimates with a €9m lower tax benefit +33thierry.cota@bofa.com1 5365-5819