The EM Asia FX Strategist: Asia FX Monthly – Navigating headwinds from Fed policy shift

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The EM Asia FX Strategist: Asia FX Monthly – Navigating headwinds from Fed policy shift

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The EM Asia FX Strategist

Asia FX Monthly – Navigating headwinds

from Fed policy shift

Summary of FX views 24 June 2026

CNY/CNH (bullish): We expect USDCNY to consolidate around the recent range as DXY GEM FI & FX Strategy

gets supported, but remain constructive on CNY in the medium term on robust exports. EM Asia

HKD (neutral): A widening yield differential between US and HK could encourage more

Table of Contentscarry trades and push USD/HKD higher toward 7.85 in 2H.

INR (neutral): Lower oil and debt inflows led to position unwind. Capital inflows China 2

absorbed by RBI to replenish spot reserves, keeping USDINR range-bound. Hong Kong 5

IDR (bearish): Higher US rates and stronger USD bring back capital flight concerns India 7

keeping IDR under depreciation pressure despite rate-hikes. Indonesia 9

KRW (bearish): The path of least resistance as a higher USD/KRW, particularly in a Fed Korea 11

hiking environment. We revise year-end USD/KRW forecast higher to 1,560. Malaysia 13

MYR (neutral): MYR weakening on lower oil prices and rising political risks. USD-beta The Philippines 15

likely to put further depreciation pressure. Revising end-2026 forecast to 4.10/USD. Singapore 17

PHP (bearish): Lower oil prices supported PHP but higher US rates may revive the Taiwan 19

depreciation pressure. BSP smoothing and rate hikes marginally supportive. Thailand 21

Vietnam 23

SGD (neutral): Policy bias turned less hawkish, keeping SNEER range-bound, while

FX Models 24

negative carry caps upside. Revising end-2026 forecast to 1.295/USD on USD strength.

Acronyms and Abbreviations 25

TWD (neutral): TWD’s low volatility profile makes it an attractive funding currency