Global Energy Weekly: Coal heats up

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Global Energy Weekly: Coal heats up

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Global Energy Weekly

Coal heats up

A strong El Niño should keep a bid on thermal coal… 23 June 2026

Thermal coal prices have regained momentum this year with benchmark Australian Commodities

Newcastle climbing above $150/t in June, the highest in two years. In the context of Global

constrained LNG availability from the Middle East, coal has increasingly been viewed as Global Commodity Research

a relatively reliable and cost‑competitive option for power generation. While the market BofA Europe (Madrid)

has softened recently amid easing tensions in the Gulf, we expect global thermal coal Danica Averion

prices to remain supported into the summer. Most weather forecasters predict a strong Commodity Strategist MLI (UK)

El Niño. This phenomenon is typically associated with hotter and drier conditions across +44 20 7996 2325

parts of South and Southeast Asia and should underpin incremental coal burn. danica_ana.averion@bofa.com

Francisco Blanch

…particularly in the Pacific where it remains attractive… CommodityBofA Europe&(Madrid)Deriv Strategist

In the Pacific region, governments have moved quickly to mitigate the impact of Middle +34francisco.blanch@bofa.com91 514 3070

East-related energy disruptions, including by easing constraints on coal-fired power Clifton White

generation. South Korea has led incremental coal demand in the region, with imports up Commodity Strategist

by 27% YoY in Jan-Apr. Despite the recent decline in gas prices, Japan, South Korea and BofAS+1 713 247 6812

Taiwan (JKT) gas-to-coal switching remains supportive, providing sufficient incentive to clifton.white@bofa.com

maintain a bid for coal. We estimate that JKT could add ~12mn mt of imports this year Michael Widmer

Commodity Strategist