Maturity wall? Ghana be tricky

研报英文原文证据摘录

Maturity wall? Ghana be tricky

Investment case in six charts

Exhibit 1: We estimate Tullow will fall short of its obligations by Exhibit 2: … which means TLW requires Brent to average well over

~$0.8bn without drawing upon further debt… $100/bbl into the foreseeable future

Tullow debt obligations in 2028 versus cash position and cash generation Comparison of oil price scenarios versus that needed by Tullow to meet its

(USDm) obligations ($/bbl)

1,600 250

Historical FWCC

1,400 230

BofA base case Tullow needed

1,200 210

1,000 190

800 170

600 150

400 130

200 110

0 90

Principal PIK + PIYC Cash position Cash Cash shortfall Market cap

interest post refi generation 70

(excluding refi 50

effects) Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26 Jul-26 Jan-27 Jul-27 Jan-28 Jul-28

Source: BofA Global Research estimates Source: BofA Global Research estimates

Mote: we assume no PIYC interest is paid in cash before maturity. Does not include Gabon/Uganda BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

contingent payments

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 3: 2P reserves have fallen by >60% since 2020 Exhibit 4: EV/(2P+2C) multiple now 140% higher than YE24

Tullow 2P reserves by country (mmboe) EV/(2P+2C)

300 8 Ghana Other

50 6

40 39 200 43 ~140% increase in multiple

6.1 6.3

100 210 191 190 2 4.0 4.3 3.7 169 3.0 2.6 128

0 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A Current

2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company reports, Bloomberg

Source: Company reports EV calculated as market cap + net debt (including lease liabilities) at year-end

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Current EV calculated as current market cap + YE26e net debt (including lease liabilities)

Exhibit 5: Tullow has only <7 years of 2P remaining Exhibit 6: Tullow is no longer diversified across geographies