UK—The Economic Cost of Brexit, Ten Years On

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UK—The Economic Cost of Brexit, Ten Years On

Economics Research

24 June 2026 | 8:03PM BST

EUROPEAN ECONOMICS ANALYST

n The UK economy has materially underperformed since the 2016 EU referendum, James Moberly

+44(20)7774-9444 |

shifting from a growth profile closer to the US to one closer to the Euro area. Our james.r.moberly@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

updated “Doppelgänger” analysis suggests real GDP is around 6% below its

Sven Jari Stehn

counterfactual path, more than our previous 5% estimate two years ago. While +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com

these figures could capture the impact of other factors as well as Brexit,

robustness checks point to an underperformance of at least 4%. These estimates

are broadly consistent with other studies. Model-based estimates of the cost of

leaving the EU average around 5%, while recent empirical research finds a 6-8%

impact.

n Analysis of the channels through which Brexit could have affected output also

points to a significant drag. Goods trade volumes have underperformed by

10-15% since the referendum. Services trade has held up better, but recent

studies nonetheless find a meaningful Brexit-related hit. Lower trade intensity

has likely reduced productivity, lowering GDP by 2-4%. Business investment has

also been weak since 2016—with business surveys suggesting this is partly due to

Brexit—likely lowering output by 2%. The impact on labour supply through

migration has been more mixed, with lower EU immigration but higher non-EU

inflows. That said, shifting migration patterns have probably contributed to

labour shortages in some sectors.

n Taken together, our estimates indicate that Brexit has materially weighed on

Britain’s economic performance relative to other advanced economies. While