IDP Education Ltd. (IEL.AX): Soft student visa data drives FY27/28 Ebit downgrades; Neutral

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IDP Education Ltd. (IEL.AX): Soft student visa data drives FY27/28 Ebit downgrades; Neutral

Equity Research

24 June 2026 | 6:28PM AEST

IDP Education Ltd. (IEL.AX): Soft student visa data drives FY27/28 Ebit

downgrades; Neutral

GS take. Last week’s trading update (link) signaled a continued deterioration in Elijah Mayr

+61(2)9321-8995 | elijah.mayr@gs.com

industry volumes, in our view, with the lower end of FY26 Ebit guidance reached Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

(A$122m; guidance A$120-130m) despite incremental cost-out (+A$5m), one-off Elise Bailey

revenue gain (+c.A$6.6m) and the exclusion of credit losses (1H26 A$6.1m). The +61(3)9679-1344Goldman Sachs Australia| elise.bailey@gs.comPty Ltd

continued decline in market volumes is evident in recent visa data across key

destination regions, which we expect to place further operational pressure on IEL

given limited visibility/catalyst over the medium term for an inflection in volumes and

reduced scope to use further cost-out as a lever to protect earnings. Maintain

Neutral.

Scope for further cost-out limited … IEL’s cost out to date (A$30m net reduction

FY26E) has primarily been driven by a reduction in headcount (-10% FY26E; c.70%

opex) which offset both cost inflation and volume declines to keep Ebit broadly

stable (+3% YoY). Looking ahead, we consider IEL’s scope for further material cost

out somewhat limited with IEL noting that FY27 cost out will cover cost inflation (GSe

A$15m net reduction in FY27), implying earnings will be increasingly exposed to

further declines in industry volumes. In our view, ongoing cost out is likely to be

correlated with volume growth providing some relative stability to margins which

sees our Ebit margins broadly flat FY26-28E.

... as market volumes continue to decline.