Latin America Energy: Oil: NOCs: Fuel subsidies, oil pricing, change in government: our early thoughts on key themes for 2Q earnings

研报英文原文证据摘录

Latin America Energy: Oil: NOCs: Fuel subsidies, oil pricing, change in government: our early thoughts on key themes for 2Q earnings

Equity Research

24 June 2026 | 8:26AM BRT

Latin America Energy: Oil: NOCs: Fuel subsidies, oil pricing, change in

government: our early thoughts on key themes for 2Q earnings

In this note, we share our early thoughts on 2Q earnings for the NOCs (national oil Bruno Amorim, CFA

+55(11)3371-0764 |

companies) in our LatAm O&G coverage, and briefly discuss key themes we think bruno.amorim@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

investors would focus during the upcoming earnings season.

Guilherme Costa Martins

+55(11)3372-3505 |

n Petrobras. We expect PBR to post Adj. EBITDA of USD 17bn in 2Q (5% above guilherme.costamartins@gs.com

Bloomberg consensus) supported by i) crude oil production growth of +6% QoQ,

Huama Belmonte

following the ramp up of recently inaugurated platforms (which should more +55(11)3371-6972 |

huama.belmonte@gs.com

than offset declines in productivity from legacy/mature assets), and ii) Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

sequentially higher Brent oil prices (without a meaningful mismatch between

PBR’s average oil selling price and the Brent 1mo-forward reference, as was the

case in 1Q earnings). We note high frequency data from Platts also indicates

improved (and more normalized) differentials in PBR’s offloads vs. the Brent

reference in the quarter. On the flip side, we acknowledge that working capital

consumption could be a headwind for FCF in the quarter, especially when

considering the time lag between the accrual and the payment of governments

subsidies for diesel and gasoline (we estimate ~USD 2bn working capital

investment in 2Q). We expect PBR to announce USD 3.4bn in dividends together