Carnival Corp. (ccl): 2Q26 Review: Taking the Middle East cut, with macro headwinds now in the rearview; Maintain Buy

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Carnival Corp. (ccl): 2Q26 Review: Taking the Middle East cut, with macro headwinds now in the rearview; Maintain Buy

Goldman Sachs Carnival Corp. (CCL)

100bps cut to 2026 net yield guidance the key negative surprise. CCL lowered its

FY26 cc net yield guidance by 100bps from 2.75% to 1.75%, implying almost a 2ppt cut

to second half cc net yield growth. This would be ~2.25% on a normalized basis given the

~50bps impact from the Arabian Gulf redeployment and 4Q impact of loyalty program

accounting. In terms of what changed during the quarter, CCL noted the following:

n By region. The moderation was concentrated on CCL’s European deployments,

particularly in the Med region which is closest to the conflict. It was further

exacerbated by elevated airfares and reduced international flight capacity for North

American guests. As a result, Europe occupancy is tracking lower than what was

expected in March, with negative revisions to both ticket and onboard revenue.

While management noted that other regions are not immune, we come away with

the sense that the impact of the conflict (and higher airfares) to Caribbean and

Alaska bookings has been fairly minimal in comparison to Europe.

n By month. This year, March was clearly impacted by the start of the war while April

saw improving y/y trends given the easier comps from the tariff shock over

Liberation Day in 2025. Europe performed better in April than in March, but was not

positive y/y. May was a step backwards in terms of y/y trends vs. April given the

tougher comps. However, in the last few weeks of June, CCL has started to turn the

page more positively.

2026 and 2027 EPS estimates broadly unchanged. Despite the headwinds to net yield,

CCL’s accelerated cost efficiency efforts (as well as lower fuel costs and buybacks) are