The High-Grade Beat: Everyone‘s an AI Adopter

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The High-Grade Beat: Everyone‘s an AI Adopter

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24 Jun 2026 01:18:31 ET │ 41 pages

The High-Grade Beat

Everyone’s an AI Adopter

CITI'S TAKE

Sector labels are losing their power to describe AI risk as the buildout's footprint

expands, with at least 40% of IG carrying a revenue link to AI, by our estimate. AC Daniel SoridNon-Tech issuers improving fundamentals on AI revenue are growing

dependent on the buildout's continuation, leaving index holders with +1-212-723-1992

embedded AI exposure well beyond their Tech allocation. Within TMT, daniel.sorid@citi.com

idiosyncratic spread dispersion has climbed to its 54th percentile, the highest AC Mathew Jacob

of any sector. To price this cross-sector reality, we introduce seven new

analytical groupings: Semiconductors, Hardware, Software, Tech Services, AI & +1-212-816-1547

Power Generation, Physical AI, and Hyperscalers. While physical infrastructure mathew.jacob@citi.com

trades near 3-year tights, Hyperscalers, Software, and Tech Services lag on With thanks to

supply and disruption concerns. As the market increasingly penalizes AI Victor Attah

disruption, we expect the infrastructure builders to outperform, and the

broader index to become increasingly tethered to this unprecedented buildout,

eroding the traditional diversification benefits of non-Tech allocations.

Tech is no longer one trade — Idiosyncratic dispersion within TMT has surged to its

54th percentile, the highest of any sector and roughly 18 percentage points above

the next. With Semis and Hardware sitting near their tightest levels while Software

has widened almost 24bps since January, AI is shaping the sector in vastly different

ways. The days of treating Tech as a monolithic allocation are over.