Randon (RAPT4.SA): Investor Day 2026: Cycle Bottom in the Rearview, Execution in Focus

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Randon (RAPT4.SA): Investor Day 2026: Cycle Bottom in the Rearview, Execution in Focus

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23 Jun 2026 19:11:14 ET │ 11 pages

Randon (RAPT4.SA)

Investor Day 2026: Cycle Bottom in the Rearview, Execution in Focus

CITI’S TAKE

Randon’s Investor Day conveyed a company actively managing through a

Buy downcycle rather than waiting it out. The 12.2% adj. EBITDA margin in

Price (23 Jun 26 18:00) R$4.41 2025, despite truck+trailer volumes falling to 195k units (vs. a peak of

249k in 2021), is evidence that revenue diversification is a strategy that is Target price R$7.00

working. Leverage at 3.2x (ex-Banco Randon) remains the key overhang, Expected share price return 58.7%

with a stated path to below 2x by 2027. Management set a minimum 15% Expected dividend yield 0.0%

ROIC target for the company, acknowledged that current interest rates Expected total return 58.7%

make an 18% ROE structurally unachievable near-term, and framed Market Cap R$1,550M

shareholder returns as largely dependent on Brazil’s interest rate

US$299M trajectory. No transformative M&A is planned while leverage remains

elevated. The tone was disciplined and credible, in our view.

Strategic priorities Andre Mazini, CFAAC

+55-11-4009-2017

• Management laid out three explicit pathways to reach minimum 15% ROIC: andre.mazini@citi.com

improving efficiency in existing businesses, raising the hurdle rate for new

Kiepher Kennedy investments, and continuing portfolio review.

+55-11-4009-2641

• Geographically, the focus is Mexico and the US, with Latin America as a kiepher.kennedy@citi.com

secondary opportunity and Europe acknowledged but lower priority. Piero Trotta

+55-11-4009-7781

• Recent divestments (e.g., Delta Global) reflect portfolio rationalization piero.trotta@citi.com