Gotion High Tech (002074.SZ): Model Update, TP Revised to Rmb42.7/sh; Maintain Buy

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Gotion High Tech (002074.SZ): Model Update, TP Revised to Rmb42.7/sh; Maintain Buy

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23 Jun 2026 12:27:18 ET │ 13 pages

Gotion High Tech (002074.SZ)

Model Update, TP Revised to Rmb42.7/sh; Maintain Buy

CITI’S TAKE

We update our Gotion model post 1Q26 result and revise down our

Buy 2026/27E earnings forecasts by 28%/23% to

Price (23 Jun 26 15:00) Rmb29.550 Rmb1,986mn/Rmb3,301mn, mainly to factor in mgmt. guidance and

lower unit GP assumptions in 2026-27E. We also introduce 2028E Target price Rmb42.700↓

earnings forecast at Rmb4,328mn with this note. We value Gotion at from Rmb56.700

Rmb42.70/share (vs. Rmb56.70/sh previously) based on an EV/EBITDA Expected share price return 44.5%

valuation approach as it eliminates uncertainties related to capital Expected dividend yield 0.3%

structures. We expect Gotion’s battery capacity will increase to 264GWh Expected total return 44.8%

in YE2026E, vs. 148GWh in YE2025, supporting the strong battery sales

Market Cap Rmb53,607M volume growth at 45% YoY in 2026E. Maintain Buy.

US$7,919M

Earnings revision — We update our Gotion model post 1Q26 result and revise down

our 2026/27E earnings forecasts by 28%/23% to Rmb1,986mn/Rmb3,301mn,

mainly to factor in mgmt. guidance and lower unit GP assumptions in 2026-27E. We Jack Shang, CFAAC

also introduce 2028E earnings forecast at Rmb4,328mn with this note. Our +852-2501-2441

2026/27/28E earnings forecasts are -3%/+16%/+21% compared with Bloomberg jack.shang@citi.com

consensus.

Anna Wang

Valuation — We value Gotion at Rmb42.70/share (vs. Rmb56.70/sh previously) +852-2501-2739

based on an EV/EBITDA valuation approach as it eliminates uncertainties related to anna.d.wang@citi.com

capital structures. Using 15.1x 2026E EV/EBITDA, 0.5SD below the historical average