Walt Disney Co. (DIS) F3Q26 preview: Expecting in-line quarter as we temper upside from Consumer Products, Parks; reiterate Buy

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Walt Disney Co. (DIS) F3Q26 preview: Expecting in-line quarter as we temper upside from Consumer Products, Parks; reiterate Buy

atives (e.g.,

Lightning Lane Premiere Pass); and (4) the opening of new attractions like World of Frozen

at Disneyland Paris (March 2026).

We forecast Experiences segment EBIT of $2.83 bn (v. consensus of $2.81 bn),

reflecting an 13% y/y increase in the quarter. This marks a sequential acceleration

from F2Q26A segment OI growth of +5% y/y. Our outlook is supported by (1) +1%

domestic attendance growth; (2) an increase in passenger cruise days following the

launch of Adventure (March 2026); (3) international parks improvement driven by new

attractions like World of Frozen at Disneyland Paris; (4) international visitation

stabilization for US parks; (5) management expectations for Experiences OI growth to be

2H weighted; and (6) comping the initial opening of Epic Universe (May 2025).

Disney is executing on its $60 bn 10-year capital expenditure plan (F2023-33) to

expand its Experiences division. Roughly three years into this cycle, management

recently noted that some projects are already yielding positive returns, supporting

consistent revenue growth, solid ROIC, and healthy margin performance. A key

component of this strategy is the measured expansion of the Disney Cruise Line, which

aims to add approximately one ship annually to reach a 13-vessel fleet by 2031, with

management anticipating minimal cannibalization of existing fleet capacity.

Furthermore, integrating major intellectual property into new attractions remains a

reliable driver of consumer interest; the recent debut of the World of Frozen at

Disneyland Paris has generated strong park fill rates, demonstrating the effectiveness of

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