Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE): VW can‘t save Europe all by itself

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Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE): VW can‘t save Europe all by itself

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23 Jun 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 14 pages

Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE)

VW can’t save Europe all by itself

CITI’S TAKE

VW Management has been working very hard to cut costs, cut (German)

Buy capacity, improve investment efficiency through partnerships, and re-

Price (22 Jun 26 14:54) €78.26 work and localise its China business. What VW has done since 2023 is

almost unprecedented, in our view. However, structural headwinds have Target price €94.00↓

accelerated. VW China ICE sales are falling even faster, prior to any new from €110.00

BEV launches. VW European market share, robust through FY25, is now Expected share price return 20.1%

under pressure. European pricing pressure is intense. Raw materials and Expected dividend yield 5.8%

energy costs are high and rising. (BEV) regulatory costs are also high and Expected total return 25.9%

rising. VW cannot do it alone. We believe the EU cannot continue to

Market Cap €39,730M heavily regulate the EU auto industry, burdening it with the highest costs

US$45,566M in the world, whilst at the same time welcoming competitors that work to

completely different standards. That could be a recipe for the demise of

European auto manufacturing. We cut our VW estimates and TP to €94.

Harald C HendrikseAC

VW China sales falling even faster — With the Chinese car market declining 6 months +44-2075-0858-10

consecutively, and down 6% YTD, and China ICE sales down 8 months running and harald.hendrikse@citi.com

down 13% YTD, VW China sales have now fallen 30%, 24%, 41%, and 38% in the past

Ross MacDonaldfour months – and is down 260k or -27% YTD. This is a much sharper decline than last

year, when VW sales in China were almost flat yoy. VW China market share has fallen +44-20-7986-7547